Hydrological Shocks, Coal Logistics, and State Revenue Fluctuations: Regional Economic Comparative Analysis
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Abstract
Extreme climate anomalies destabilize strategic commodity supply chains, creating institutional inefficiencies that threaten energy security and fiscal stability. This comparative research evaluated the transmission of hydrological shocks using spatial analysis and institutional economics. The findings prove that logistics infrastructure asymmetry strictly determines the severity of macroeconomic crises. Absolute dependence on monolithic river corridors triggers intermediary market failures, directly locking delivery volumes when water discharge shrinks. Conversely, the operational flexibility of multimodal rail networks acts as crucial redundancy, successfully buffering domestic energy deficits. This physical mobility instability triggers a widening deviation in state revenue, proving global commodity price spikes inevitably fail to compensate for fiscal losses. The novelty of this study shatters classical deterministic assumptions by positioning supply chain resilience as the primary parameter for fiscal protection. Its prescriptive policy implications urge authorities to overhaul revenue forecasting architectures by integrating logistical climate risk indices, thereby fortifying financial systems against ecological disasters.
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